Why the Ceasefire Won’t Fix Supply Chain Risk Artwork

Resilient Supply Chain — How Leaders Keep Business Moving

Resilient Supply Chain is for supply chain, operations, procurement and technology leaders who need practical ways to manage disruption, reduce risk and keep business moving.

Each Monday, former SAP Global VP and technology futurist Tom Raftery speaks with the executives, operators, founders and innovators redesigning how goods, information and decisions move through global supply chains.

These are candid conversations about what works in practice—not polished PR narratives or vague predictions. Guests explain how they are responding to supplier failures, geopolitical shocks, volatile costs, capacity constraints, changing regulations and rising pressure to improve both performance and sustainability.

The podcast examines:
Faster planning and decision-making under uncertainty
Supplier risk, sourcing strategy and business continuity
AI, automation, visibility and operational intelligence
Warehousing, logistics and fulfilment performance
Scope 3 emissions, circularity and responsible sourcing
The systems, incentives and organisational changes needed to turn data into action

The central question is simple: what helps a supply chain withstand disruption, adapt quickly and continue serving the business?

New episodes are published every Monday at 7am CET. Resilient Supply Chain+ subscribers also receive bonus analysis, highlights and briefings on emerging industry trends.

Follow Resilient Supply Chain for practical lessons from the people solving real operational problems—and building supply chains that perform when conditions do not go to plan.

All Episodes

Resilient Supply Chain — How Leaders Keep Business Moving

Why the Ceasefire Won’t Fix Supply Chain Risk

April 10, 2026 • Tom Raftery • Season 1 • Episode 116

0:00 | 16:34

Send me a message

A ceasefire is in place, so why are supply chains still under pressure?
Because a half-open chokepoint can be harder to manage than a fully closed one.

In this second bonus episode of Resilient Supply Chain+, I break down what the war on Iran means for supply chain resilience, sustainability, risk, data, and visibility over the next 6-12 months. This isn’t about headline panic. It’s about what happens when disruption becomes friction, when shipping is still moving but at higher cost, with more uncertainty, more surcharges, and less room for error.

You’ll hear how I separate the risks into three buckets: sectors facing acute operational exposure, sectors facing cost and margin pressure, and sectors facing second-order inflation exposure. We break down why fertiliser and sulphur may matter as much as oil, why “manageable” freight markets are not the same as healthy ones, and why adaptation, rerouting, and reserve releases buy time but don’t remove dependency.

You might be surprised to learn why the war is also accelerating interest in electric vehicles, renewables, storage, and electrified operations. Not because they solve everything, but because every kilometre electrified is one less kilometre exposed to imported oil shocks.

Most importantly, I lay out the practical playbook: what supply chain leaders should review in the next 7 days, what contracts to revisit in the next 30, and why energy security and supply chain resilience are now the same conversation.

🎙️ Listen now to hear how this war is reshaping the future of resilient, sustainable supply chains.

Support the show

Podcast supporters
I'd like to sincerely thank this podcast's generous Subscribers:

Alicia Farag
Kieran Ognev
Gary Lynch

And remember you too can become a Resilient Supply Chain+ subscriber - it is really easy and hugely important as it will enable me to continue to create more excellent episodes like this one and give you access to bonus episodes of topical, timely supply chain resilience analysis.

🎤 Looking for a keynote speaker on supply chain resilience, AI, and sustainability?
I help leaders understand the forces reshaping global supply chains, from geopolitical disruption and climate risk to AI and real-time decision-making.

Download my Speaker Pack: https://tinyurl.com/spkrpck

Finally
If you have any comments/suggestions or questions for the podcast - feel free to just send me a direct message on LinkedIn, or send me a message using this link.

If you liked this show, please don't forget to rate and/or review it. It makes a big difference to help new people discover it.

Thanks for listening.